← DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 3
at DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
decks
1
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-4-0
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.0%
avg ELO -9.5 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1326
· median 1326
· range 1326–1326
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1160
Q3 1345
1550
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.7% | -6.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.7% | -24.5 |
| Fire Suited | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.8% | +5.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
